Florida Governor Charlie Crist has seen better days, to put it lightly. Just eight months ago, as the popular chief executive of one of the largest states in the country, he was able to install a trusted former staffer into a Senate spot that he fully expected to waltz into a little over a year later. Of course, even the best-laid plans will go astray, and he’s now facing a strong challenger in his party’s primary, as conservative state house speaker Marco Rubio has exploded onto the scene, feeding off of much of the same energy as the Tea Party crowd. Governor Crist quickly slipped from shoe-in for the post to long-shot for the nod, and it’s caused a great deal of conjecture (not wholly unfounded) over whether or not he will split with the GOP and make an independent run—an option that would be too maverick even for John McCain.
It’s hard to argue that the move would be anything but a good one for Crist. Hardly a staunch conservative, Crist has proven himself willing to take moderate stances and even make bipartisan concessions in the past. He famously (or infamously, depending on your views) stood on stage with President Obama early last year, helping him sell his economic stimulus plan, and he recently vetoed an education bill that his party supported. These moves may have been acceptable at a different time, but right now political polarization is the dominant theme, and Republican voters are responding to the far-right ideals of folks like Rubio. It’s been obvious for a while that Crist will not be winning the GOP nomination.
Still, while Crist trails Rubio by double digits in the GOP primary polls, it’s not all bad news for the governor. He’s projected to make a strong showing against both Rubio and expected Democratic candidate Kendrick Meek (D-FL, 17th) in the general. This is likely due to the fact that, while the party bases are polarized, the mass of moderates in the middle is feeling disillusioned by the current partisan atmosphere. It may be perfect timing for an independent candidate, who can benefit from the discontent with both parties that’s being expressed across the country.
While Rubio enjoys a number of positives going into the election, it’s not all sunshine for him either. He can probably be expected to get a boost from the substantial Latino population in the state, but Florida Hispanics voting Republican is not as reliable a phenomenon as it once was, when in years past the Cuban exile community in Miami provided the GOP with a solid base of support. In the 2008 election season, the number of Hispanic registered Democrats in Florida jumped by almost 150,000, pulling ahead of Republicans by a decent margin. Rubio will likely need more strengths than just his shaky demographic base if he’s caught in a three-way race. He’ll also be facing the problem that many Tea Partiers and other right-wing conservatives are up against: while very popular with their base, their polarizing nature makes them a turn-off to many voters that make up the middle – just the kind of people that Crist appeals to.
Rubio is facing other problems as well, as his tax records are reportedly under investigation by the IRS. Whether or not the story has any actual teeth to it could be immaterial, as even the scent of scandal can be very damaging in an election year.
Watching the GOP fight from the outside, the Democrats have to be reasonably happy with the way things have played out. While their front-runner, Kendrick Meek, is not faring well in the polls, they have to like his chances in a three-way race better than one-on-one with either potential Republican nominee. There’s also the chance that Crist will win the seat and decide to take revenge on the party that turned its back on him, and side with Senate Democrats on key votes; sort of like a bizarro-Joe Lieberman. Considering the fact that Florida, while probably a bit more conservative than it was in 2000, is still a swing state, and based on his strengths amongst moderates, expect Crist’s indie announcement to come soon, and sit back for what will surely be an entertaining campaign.
